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Is the traffic estimator even remotely correct?

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 1
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭

Are the traffic estimates provided by the keyword planner or the "Estimate Search Traffic" button under +Keywords even remotely correct? 

 

I am looking at an exact match of a single highly competitive keyword and it estimates at a very low CPC of a few cents i will be able to get a few hundred clicks a day. 

 

However, I put my max CPC at more than double the CPC of the estimate and it the keyword shows a quality score of 10/10, yet my ads still do not show.

 

I contacted support twice to see if there was something wrong with my account and the only thing they could tell me to do was raise my CPC (and they would make no comment if the estimator was accurate or not).  I know I could get more clicks with a CPC, but I would like to get the cheap clicks the estimator suggests are available. 

 

So, if the estimator says there are cheap clicks available is this accurate at all?

1 Expert replyverified_user

Re: Is the traffic estimator even remotely correct?

Top Contributor
# 2
Top Contributor

Hi there;

As you already figured out the traffic estimator is a statistical tool, and as such, the margin of error of the statistical analysis could be quite broad.

Unfortunately, currently Google does not report neither the margin of error, nor the confidence level of these estimates.

Moshe, AdWords Top Contributor , Twitter | Linkedin | Community Profile | Ad-Globe
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Re: Is the traffic estimator even remotely correct?

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 3
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭

We are talking about a pretty significant margin of error here. I don't even know if you can call this a "margin" of error but rather the estimator being dead wrong. Which kinda makes me wonder if something is just wrong with my account (or I am doing something wrong).

 

For this single keyword I am interested in the estimator forecasts:

Max Bid: $0.05
Daily Budget: $20.00
Clicks: 511.64
Impr. 36,955.44


Today I ran this same keyword with a CPC more than double the estimate of $0.12 and have received only 5 impressions (0 clicks)

 

So I am wondering if it is a common experience for the estimator to be that far off?   Or is there something wrong with my account (or am I doing something wrong)?

 

 

 

Re: Is the traffic estimator even remotely correct?

Top Contributor
# 4
Top Contributor

Well... I think that the issue here is that your initial bid is far low from first page bid and this causes the system to "diverge".

When you check historical data, (not the estimate)  - what is the average CPC paid by advertisers for this keyword?

Moshe, AdWords Top Contributor , Twitter | Linkedin | Community Profile | Ad-Globe
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Re: Is the traffic estimator even remotely correct?

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 5
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
I am afraid I can not find where to view the historical data for a keyword. Any hints?

Re: Is the traffic estimator even remotely correct?

Top Contributor
# 6
Top Contributor
Here you are;
https://support.google.com/adwords/answer/3022575
Moshe, AdWords Top Contributor , Twitter | Linkedin | Community Profile | Ad-Globe
Did you find any helpful responses or answers to your query? If yes, please mark it as the ‘Best Answer’