Estimating Keyword Market Size
I used Keyword Planner: Search Volume and found out that the Average Monthly Searches for my number #1 broad keyword is 27,100 month.
It takes me 1450 impressions to get a conversion. So that seems to me to mean that every month I have a pool of 27,100/1450 = 18 people who I can possibly convert. Is this reasoning sound?
If I am converting 2 people a month with my current budget does it stand to reason that if I spend 9x as much I will convert 18 people a month? Is it reasonable to assume that my spending will have a linear relationship to my conversions? Or is this a bell-shaped curve situation with diminished returns after a certain spend point?
Also, of the 27,100 searches a month for my keyword, am I really being seen by all of those searches even if I am in AdWords position #1? I have heard that if 100% of searchers view the 1st organic result, 50% of searchers view the 1st position AdWords ad on the right side, 25% view the second ad, then it drops significantly from there. So is my AdWords ad in the #1 position only being seen by half of the 27,100 searches? What about the AdWords ads above the organic search results?
If even one of these questions can be answered I would greatly appreciate it. I’m always down to write a testimonial for anyone too.
Re: Estimating Keyword Market Size[ Edited ]
February 2014 - last edited February 2014
The reasoning you are applying does not make sense to me, because you are getting a conversion after 1450 impression right now(what i understood from the post) which i feel is a relevant keyword because if you assume a CTR of 5% then you are getting a conversion in 70 clicks which means your conversion rate is around 1.5%, which i think is fine.
As you have mentioned that these are the number of impressions for broad match keyword, so what all queries will be triggered are not that relevant as compared to other matches. So your calculation that "27,100/1450=18" doesn't seems to be perfect. Spending have a linear relationship with the spend but if keywords are chosen very strictly and account is regularly monitored.
Re: Estimating Keyword Market Size
First of all I have to say that what you see there are estimations. So please take them with a grain of salt. The real numbers may well be either higher or lower. By how much it remains to be seen after you serve ads for that keyword for a few weeks.
As for the conversions / impressions ratio, if on average you've recorded 1450 impressions for a conversion, and those impressions are uniformly distributed across the locations you're targeting, time of day and day of week, as well as the search terms that trigger your keyword, you may be able to get 18 conversions for 27k impressions. However, that distribution is rarely that homogenous and again, your mileage may vary.
From my experience, the linear relationship does not exist. The higher you place your ad and the more impression share you cover, you will see tire kickers clicking your ad. Unless what you're offering is so good, so in demand and so hard to find that people simply cannot pass on your offer. But then maybe you wouldn't need 1450 impressions for a conversion .
Now to the impression share part. Your ad will be displayed on the search results page every time your keyword matches a search query if you target the whole area you've used in the keyword planner and if your impression share is displayed as 100% in the AdWords interface.
Whether the ad is noticed by the searcher, that is another question, because, as you've pointed out, ads tend to stand out less and less the lower they're placed on the page (or if they're placed on the right). But if you manage to get 100% impression share and if you bid high enough, you may be able to be featured in the top positions for pretty much all impressions.
And if you make good use of ad extensions, you may gain even more visibility.
Also, you can audit the performance of your ads for that keyword by looking at the "Top vs. Other" segmen in your keywords tab. That's the report that tells you how your ads are performing in the top positions versus other positions and you can see if bidding higher is really worth it for you in terms of profit per conversion.
I don't know if I've really covered everything you needed to know about this topic, but if there's anything else, please let us know.
You may use those numbers, as I've told you, but don't consider them as being written in stone.
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