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Bid simulator inconsistencies

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Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 1
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭

My campaign's and adgroups' bid simulator shows a significantly higher amount of clicks I should get at my bid, but I only get a1/5 of the number. 

 

Checked everything. Quality score is 8–10 across the board. Device bidding option untouched. Scheduling 24 hours. 

 

Does anyone know why is this happening?

 

Screen Shot 2015-04-13 at 11.55.36 PM.png

1 Expert replyverified_user

Re: Bid simulator inconsistencies

Top Contributor
# 2
Top Contributor

@Boris R;

This is the nature of statistics... Sometimes the margin of error is just too broad and  the value falls within this range (either on the "high range" or on the "low range")...

I have encountered this  many times, and personally, don't rely on the bid simulator "estimates"...

 

From Wikipedia:

>>"The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the true figures;....Like confidence intervals, the margin of error can be defined for any desired confidence level, but usually a level of 90%, 95% or 99% is chosen (typically 95%). This level is the probability that a margin of error around the reported percentage would include the "true" percentage."

Moshe, AdWords Top Contributor , Twitter | Linkedin | Community Profile | Ad-Globe
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