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Segmentation exp. conditions giving different conversion numbers from Optimize and GA > Experiments

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# 1
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Problem

- Been trying to figure out why my control beat my variant when most experiments have given a 10% uplift

 

Google Optimize - control winning by ~140 conversions

 

Google Experiments - Control winning by ~140 experiments

 

GA, Segmented to Control & Experimental Conditions - Control winning by 30 conversions

 

Here's what my segments look like

 

Other notes

- I only have a Control and one Experimental Variant in this experiment

- Google Optimize is firing through GTM, which is on all pages on the sites being tested

- Only the pages with the relevant forms are being targeted by Google Optimize

 

Any ideas why I'm getting different numbers here? Is Optimize giving funny numbers?