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adwords traffic estimator and first page - contradicts

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# 1
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I am setting up my first AdWords.  I used the Traffic estimator and found that if I bid .81 (81 cents) it will generate 20 clicks, have 618 impressions and have a 4.46 position.  The cost will be $10.47 per day and the click through rate will be 3.3%.  The average cost per click will be .51 (51 cents).


I like that.  Now, I go to set up the actual ad.  First, I let it automatically do everything to maximize hits and it came up with a bid of $1.61.  Too high - because I learned earlier thru the traffic estimator that for the extra cost I really wasn't increasing my click I'd rather have fewer clicks and save some bucks.


So I switched it to manual and put in my .81 (81 cents).  Suddenly, it tells me that to get on page one for my words will be $4.25.    How can it bid $1.61...but then if I do it manually, require me to bid $4.25 to get on page 1.


The traffic estimator said I would be a 4.46 position at my lower rate.  What's up with suddenly having to pay 8 times as much to get on page 1?


I hope that I am doing something wrong here and that the traffic estimator info actually ties into something real...   Also, if I let it bid $1.61, am I going to end up on page 3??? 

2 Expert replyverified_user

Re: adwords traffic estimator and first page - contradicts

Top Contributor
# 2
Top Contributor

Hello there;

These are just estimates. It was discussed here in the past, that the  margin of error could be sometimes,  for some keywords, quite huge. Google does not report the "margin of error", so you cannot know how accurate is this estimate.

I would (better) rely on the raw data for CPC using  the keyword tool, rather than  terrific estimator  or the first page bid estimate.



Moshe, AdWords Top Contributor , Twitter | Linkedin | Community Profile | Ad-Globe
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Re: adwords traffic estimator and first page - contradicts

Top Contributor
# 3
Top Contributor

Hi Carolyn, further to Moshe's reply, I have to say I sometimes wish Google wouldn't try to estimate these things; they are more a source of anguish than help in my opinion.


As Moshe has said, our experience is that the estimates given for things like average CPC, first page and top of page bids are not only exactly that - estimates - but extremely "loose" ones at that.  The situation is not helped in that a lot of things change in the very early days of a new Account/Campaign, as you've had experience of yourself.


The very best way to get a handle on costs is experimentation and that does unfortunately mean that to some extent you do have to consider any investment in a new Account to be a "risk".  Neither is there any easy way to mitigate the spend necessary for that test to be meaningful.  You really can't "test" advertising by spending a very small amount in one area and then attempt to extrapolate the results, it's like putting your Ad in just one local paper with a circulation of 100 people and then deciding upon the results of that test that advertising to 10,000 won't work.


Setting up a new AdWords Account is, in my opinion, one of the toughest things to do right and there are no shortcuts.



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