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Whopping discrepancies in Google AdWords Traffic Estimator ?!?!

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 1
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭

Please tell me that this is just a glitch.


Over the past 5-6 weeks, I have been AdWords Traffic Estimator.

Every few days I would check about 20 sets of keywords. From day to day, the numbers are generally the same. Until today!


This is an example of one keyword (oshawa mls)


Date               Keyword          Est. ad. posn.  Est. daily clicks  Est. daily cost  Max CPC

3/3/2012        oshawa mls             3.7                    2.28                  $1.04          $0.68

3/8/2012:       oshawa mls             3.5                    2.49                  $1.17          $0.68

today             oshawa mls             6.28                  0.23                  $0.12          $0.68


I typed in about a dozen different keywords, and all of them had a major drop in est. daily clicks, and est. ad. position.


Why is this? I am just about to start my campaign (in April) and this has considerably dropped my confidence.


Have I made a mistake? Please advise.

1 Expert replyverified_user

Re: Whopping discrepancies in Google AdWords Traffic Estimator ?!?!

[ Edited ]
Top Contributor
# 2
Top Contributor

Hi GetStephen;


Traffic Estimator pulls performance data from your campaigns to estimate positions, clicks, etc...

Since AdWords campaigns parameters are dynamic, naturally your Traffic Estimator will reflect variations in parameters in its estimations - assuming, those happen along time. (e.g: there could be a change in QS of the keywords, or you might add the same keyword in another ad-group, having the same keywords competing with each other: In this example, the Estimator might, now, check performance based on the 2nd keyword, added, - as it is the one that is most likely take part in an auction...)


To wrap-up; should be remembered that the Traffic Estimator results diverge between campaigns, based on their performances.



Moshe, AdWords Top Contributor , Twitter | Linkedin | Community Profile | Ad-Globe
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Re: Whopping discrepancies in Google AdWords Traffic Estimator ?!?!

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 3
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭

Does it matter that I have not ran any campaigns in the past four months?

Re: Whopping discrepancies in Google AdWords Traffic Estimator ?!?!

Badged Google Partner
# 4
Badged Google Partner

All the estimator tools are just that, estimates, and shouldn't be taken as gospel, however...


A major change has happened over the last few (four) months regarding the ad format on the page. When I google'd 'oshawa mls' I only saw ads on the bottom of the page. If this ad format change has just happened recently (today?) for this particular term, it will change the entire landscape regarding costs, clicks, etc.


Have you been previewing / searching for this term at the same time you have run these estimates? Has the page layout changed recently? That might explain the dramatic drop in estimated position, clicks, and total cost. The fact that the estimated CPC has not changed, would seem to suggest that this is not because of increased bid prices from the competition alone. If only one or two ads can show on the first page, but are at the bottom of the page, even the top 1-2 position ads will suffer a loss of total overall engagement (clicks).


Perhaps this particular keyword is not, at this time, the "top of the pyramid" keyword, it once may have been. Things change so often, it's increasingly difficult to plan ahead. Once you go live, you will have to make adjustments.


Tom Hale, Jr.


Re: Whopping discrepancies in Google AdWords Traffic Estimator ?!?!

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 5
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭



There are plenty of ads for "oshawa mls", but the numbers I provided in the original post were filtered locally.  (i.e. Canada)


I think that is why you aren't getting the ads at the top of the page.  It's just a  thought however.  I emailed Google adWords, and got a response regarding the algorithm Google uses, changes two-three times per month.  She advised me to check again in a few days.


Thanks for your help.


I'll keep you posted.

Re: Whopping discrepancies in Google AdWords Traffic Estimator ?!?!

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 6
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭

I checked again, and although there are some major variances, the numbers are close to what they had been a few weeks back.

Re: Whopping discrepancies in Google AdWords Traffic Estimator ?!?!

Top Contributor Alumni
# 7
Top Contributor Alumni

Well I'm glad you checked again and your confidence restored.


I really would encourage you to take all estimations and forecasts with a pinch of salt though. They are sometimes a good rough indication - and never anything more.


Last year Google updated the traffic estimator and apparently now it is 3x more accurate than it was, but it is still usually some way off when you compare actual impressions received with estimated searches.


Good luck with your new campaign.

Jack Porter-Smith
Jack's G+