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Predicting Campaign Budgets

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 1
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭

Hi guys!

I think I have seen somewhere that you can calculate the "optimal budget" based on data in your account using Impression Share, Lost Impression Share due to budget amount spent and so on. But I can´t seem to find it, anyone that knows what mean?

The case is this:
My clients wants a plan for their AdWords budget for 2017 and want´s to increase their IS during some months. So they asked me to look in to this and present this based on data from this year. Of course you will have to look in to other aspects as well that affects such increased clickprice, competion and so on. 
The client isn´t looking for any CPA or so, they want visitors to their site to create brand awareness and so their salescrew can hook up leads.
How would you guys approach this matter?

Marked as Best Answer.
Accepted by topic author Stefan B
November 2016

Predicting Campaign Budgets

[ Edited ]
Explorer ✭ ✭ ☆
# 2
Explorer ✭ ✭ ☆

Hi Stefan,


Essentially what you want is:


# of IS lost (budget) * CTR * avg. CPC


# of IS lost (budget) formula:


Total impressions (i.e. total imps / % IS) * % IS loss (budget)






400 impressions; CTR 5%; Avg CPC $.50; IS: 60%; IS loss (budget): 20%


400 / 60% * 20% = 133 missed impressions due to budget

133 * 5% CTR * $.50 = $3.33 increased budget.


So if your original budget was $100 and you wanted to pick up all the impressions you missed due to budget, you would need to raise your budget to ≈$103.33.


As you mentioned, that doesn't take into account any other issues causing CPCs to go up.

Predicting Campaign Budgets

Badged Google Partner
# 3
Badged Google Partner

I like David's math there. Smiley Happy


However, this is assuming that nothing ever changes, and the entire account is set in stone as-is. Any changes at any level of the account can drastically affect potential impression share.


Why no conversions? A contact form completion, newsletter signup, email capture, or phone call are all "conversions" as far as you are concerned. It's up to the sales team to turn the lead into a customer. You need someway to track those leads, so you know what works or doesn't. If you have no lead/conversion tracking at all, then for all anyone knows the previous years spend and impression share numbers have been just a waste of money. Smiley Happy


If you do have a conversion strategy, then you can actually base your impression share estimates off of what works. With the highest converting targeting options / campaign strategy - What kind of impression share do you have already? 


Predicting Campaign Budgets

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 4
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭

Spot on (The button)!
That was what I was looking for. Thank you very much for your help.
I will use this as a start when I look at the budget. Then I always raise the budget some to have room for "other issues" and I always say to my clients. "It´s a budget, a prediction. It´s, almost, never right" =)

Predicting Campaign Budgets

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 5
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭

Hi Tom!


Yes, it´s as you say. As long as nothing changes this will work. But I just use this as an start and to give my clients a hint about which money we are talking about. And as I replied to earlier, I always bare in mind that the next week, month or year will look different. But I like to the idea of using data that you (or your client) own as a part when you present this for a client.

In this case my client use a third party tracking that provides their salesforce with leads based on how people interact with homepage and where they are based and so on. They work B2B so they follow up on what they have set up as Hot Leads in their Third party tracking.
And they know that if they get X visitors then Y of them will become Hot Leads for their Sales Force. Then it will take months, sometime years before they have clinched a deal.
But I agree with you on the conversions, but my client doesn´t think like that I´m afraid, believe me I tried to adress this matter many times. But my work on optimizing the campaigns gets much harder. I work with time spent on site, pages viewed, geotargeting and so on.