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How do keyword planner forecasts generate CTR?

Follower ✭ ✭ ✭
# 1
Follower ✭ ✭ ✭

Hello,

I've been exploring the Google Keyword Planner "Get Forecasts" tool today, and I noticed that their results usually give you a forecast of CTR. My questions are:

 

  1. Given they don't see your ad copy, but rather only the keywords you plan to bid on -- how are they able to predict the CTR? Would you say it's an accurate measurement (because I don't think so, given the fact that I know that your ad copy's CTR is based on your ability to persuade better than the other).

  2. Have many of you ever compared the forecasts results vs. the actual results once the campaign is implemented? What were the results?

Cheers,

Michal

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Accepted by topic author Michal B
September 2015

Re: How do keyword planner forecasts generate CTR?

Participant ✭ ✭ ✭
# 2
Participant ✭ ✭ ✭
Hi Michal,

In short, the CTR value is based on the ad position your bid allows for and the average results of all advertisers in that position. So it is not accurate to your account, it is the average of all accounts.

Just using that logic then the forecast results vs. actual results will show that half the advertisers out there have done better and half have done worse.

Hope this helps

View solution in original post

Marked as Best Answer.
Solution
Accepted by topic author Michal B
September 2015

Re: How do keyword planner forecasts generate CTR?

Participant ✭ ✭ ✭
# 2
Participant ✭ ✭ ✭
Hi Michal,

In short, the CTR value is based on the ad position your bid allows for and the average results of all advertisers in that position. So it is not accurate to your account, it is the average of all accounts.

Just using that logic then the forecast results vs. actual results will show that half the advertisers out there have done better and half have done worse.

Hope this helps

Re: How do keyword planner forecasts generate CTR?

Follower ✭ ✭ ✭
# 3
Follower ✭ ✭ ✭
You're absolutely right, if that CTR is an average, then actual results can be twice as good, or twice as worse. Thanks Clynton

Re: How do keyword planner forecasts generate CTR?

Participant ✭ ✭ ✭
# 4
Participant ✭ ✭ ✭
Glad I could help!

Re: How do keyword planner forecasts generate CTR?

[ Edited ]
Collaborator ✭ ☆ ☆
# 5
Collaborator ✭ ☆ ☆

Hi,

1- The keyword planner first tries to predict the number of impressions for the keyword based on many factors like location, language, match type, bid and some historical statistics , then the tool tries to predict the number of clicks based also on the previous factors and the customer behavior in your industry. Finally, the tool divides the number of clicks by the number of impressions to predict CTR.

2) The traffic your ads get could be different than the keyword planner estimates in many cases and could be similar in other cases. There are many reasons why your traffic estimates may be different than your actual results. For instances, If you just created a new adwords account, your estimates are based on historical average data for all advertisers because Google doesn't know anything about your particular business yet. Those are just estimates could be right and could be wrong, take them with a grain of salt until you have the actual data in your account.

Re: How do keyword planner forecasts generate CTR?

Follower ✭ ✭ ✭
# 6
Follower ✭ ✭ ✭
Thanks Ahmed.