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How accurate are Est first page bids?

Follower ✭ ✭ ✭
# 1
Follower ✭ ✭ ✭

For a keyword(search only): "windows vista customer service"  I see 1 click at Avg Position: 2 for $.55 but Est first page bid is $.61.

 

So how accurate are first page estimated bids?

 

 

2 Expert replyverified_user
Marked as Best Answer.
Solution
Accepted by AmyB (Google Employee)
September 2015

Re: How accurate are first page estimate bids?

Top Contributor
# 2
Top Contributor

utilitiesindia;


Look at these discussions. The second one includes a post, by Laura from Google, on "estimate"


 

 

Moshe, AdWords Top Contributor , Twitter | Linkedin | Community Profile | Ad-Globe
Did you find any helpful responses or answers to your query? If yes, please mark it as the ‘Best Answer’

Re: How accurate are Est first page bids?

Badged Google Partner
# 3
Badged Google Partner

The avg. pos. of 2 could be for the second page. Do you use the ad preview tool? Neither the tool, or the estimates are always accurate, but the aggregate data taken in context can help you find out what's really going on. 

Tom

Re: How accurate are Est first page bids?

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 4
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭

IMO those estimates are way off for most keywords. I use them as a hint when I gain no traffic on a keyword, but aside from that, they are no consideration for our daily operations.

 

 

Re: How accurate are Est first page bids?

Follower ✭ ✭ ✭
# 5
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Hi utilitiesindia,

 

For some instances i do see the same for few keywords. But for instances like "abc" Phrase keyword asking bid is $0.61 and the keyword bid is $0.55 which is in phrase may trigger for "abc xyz" keyword with low requested bid. 

 

Please check the Match type for the keyword.

 

Thanks

Raghu

Marked as Best Answer.
Solution
Accepted by AmyB (Google Employee)
September 2015

Re: How accurate are Est first page bids?

Google Employee
# 6
Google Employee

Hi utilitiesindia,

 

In addition to the great replies above, it's useful to bear in mind that first page bid estimates are based on the exact match of a keyword. So, your keyword "windows vista customer service" might have received an average postition of 2 for a phrase or broad match variation. In the top link provided by MosheTLV, tomhalejr gives good advice when he suggests using the search terms report. This will give you insights into the variations of your keyword that are getting clicks and impressions. Alternatively, you can also segment by match type to check your average position on exact, broad and phrase matched terms. 

 

In addition to the above, the first page bid estimator is an average estimate based on quality score and current advertiser competition. As competition and QS vary for each auction (every time somebody searches with your keyword), there are likely to be times when competition is lower and your ad, in turn, will be eligable to show at a lower bid. For example, you may notice your ad gets relatively more clicks in the evening time when your competitors budgets have depleted. 

 

Ultimately, as has been mentioned by previous posters, it is an estimate. This is due to the dynamic nature of the AdWords auction system.

 

I hope this ads to the above resources!

 

Amy