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Keyword Planner Margin of Error or Standard Deviation

Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭
# 1
Visitor ✭ ✭ ✭



I am having trouble reconciling the difference in the first page bid estimate for certain keywords.

ie. cold feet wedding

In the Keyword Planner this term set to the US and Canada is showing a suggested bid of $.11.

With a live campaign the price has varied 

I have used all the types of keywords and the price has fluctuated through out the trial.

ie. phrase $3.36

My main concern is that the Suggested Bid in the Keyword Planner at $.11 sees increases of 1000%+

when campaigns go live.

In the AdWords Help Center the only answer I have found is "your actual cost per click may vary"


Please Help! I can't figure this one out myself...

1 Expert replyverified_user

Re: Keyword Planner Margin of Error or Standard Deviation

Badged Google Partner
# 2
Badged Google Partner

Your actual cost per click and first page bid price is always going to vary based upon the competition in your target market area. (as well as Ad Rank and Quality scores)

First page bid in New York may be $10.00 whereas
First page bid in New Mexico may be $2.00

The estimations are based on the rules of large numbers based upon the total market for all area's based on those keywords and does not take into account your limited target area.

Use the estimates as an indication or starting place.

Also remember competition can use ad scheduling so they are not always 24/7, they can be using different bidding strategies which would make the positions vary, they could be using scripts or automated bidding rules that would effect positions.

Also Ad Rank comes into play, if your Quality scores are low, you may not be eligible for top positions etc

There are a lot of factors that go into your Ad rank and position per your individual account settings and the competition.

Remember Suggested is an Estimate from a gross and should be taken with a grain of salt, rarely do we see them hit the mark, or even the target for that matter.

Hope that helps.

Re: Keyword Planner Margin of Error or Standard Deviation

Top Contributor
# 3
Top Contributor

Hi there;

This is a nice question, and the topic of this thread ids the answer... Smiley Surprised

As you pointed out Google does not publish the standard deviation or the margin of error (which are not the same - but let's skip this part).  Your example shows how an average could be a misleading metric without  the standard deviation....

Having said that, the range of the result seems to be too broad. My guess: both competition and wide Geo targeting area.

Moshe, AdWords Top Contributor , Twitter | Linkedin | Community Profile | Ad-Globe
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