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How do you forecast/project conversion targets each quarter?

Follower ✭ ☆ ☆
# 1
Follower ✭ ☆ ☆

Hi Community,


What are ways you accurately project/forecast your conversion targets&goals for each quarter? For us, we take a look at the avg. cost per conversions within search/display + remarketing/non-remarketing -- and apply that to our budget for the next quarter.


Is this an accurate way to project/forecast? Do you all do something differently?

Let me know :-)




Re: How do you forecast/project conversion targets each quarter?

Follower ✭ ☆ ☆
# 2
Follower ✭ ☆ ☆
Hi Jean,

It's very difficult to provide a direct answer for your question without understanding the context.

However I believe you need to first start from understanding the inventory for your project. (impressions) as well as industry benchmarks (CTR / CPA etc.) further the budget allocation and historical performance will also play a big role here.


Re: How do you forecast/project conversion targets each quarter?

Participant ✭ ✭ ☆
# 3
Participant ✭ ✭ ☆

Hi Jean Philippe,


It really depends on the client.  Here are a couple factors that I take into account (just depending on how much data is available, the type of client and how stable their data is):


  • Seasonality - looking at YoY trends helps & Google Insights help, too.
  • CPC/CPA/CVR Trends - especially when using YoY as a guideline, you have to factor in changes in CPC/CPA/CVR since that time, or else you could drastically underestimate or overestimate the number of leads/sales for your spend
  • Current Run Rate - Especially if the client isn't seasonal (but even if they are) it helps to see how things are currently pacing. 
  • Budget - Is budget the same as it was last year? last month? You have to take this into consideration when using historical data to project.  
  • Search Volume - This ties closely with budget/seasonality.  If your budget is significantly higher but the search volume isn't there, then you could accidentally over-estimate your lead/sale volume.
  • Sales/Events - Promos/Sales/Sweepstakes/Events always tend to generate volume and often improve CVR
  • Other Media - PPC is certainly influenced by other online and offline channels, so take that into consideration when you make your projection.
  • Changes or Upcoming Changes - When using run rate or historical data, I take into account any recent changes or any upcoming changes in directions.


I hope this helps!