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Est First Page Bid Calculation

SCL
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# 1
SCL
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I understand the est first page bid is only an estimate but how does the Google system calculate the figure shown in an adwords account?

 

 

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Re: Est First Page Bid Calculation

Top Contributor
# 2
Top Contributor

Hello again;
Yes. it is an estimate with its margin of error (that Google does not report). This error could be sometimes big and hence the variations in values. I personally don't trust statistical values that do not report  the "margin of error"   or the  standard deviation associated with them. So, I don't count much on this "estimated first page bid" and rather rely "as a first shot" on the raw data shown on the "keyword planner";

 

-Moshe

Moshe, AdWords Top Contributor , Twitter | Linkedin | Community Profile | Ad-Globe
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Re: Est First Page Bid Calculation

SCL
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# 3
SCL
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Hi,

Thanks for the reply. Yes i do understand that sometimes the est first page bid can have variations in what it shows within an account but what im actually trying to find out is how is this figure calculated by the google system?......there must be a link between performance stats and the est first page bid value just like the ad rank formula. After all if it was totally useless it wouldn't be included as a feature in adwords. Does anyone know how the est first page bid value is calculated?

Re: Est First Page Bid Calculation

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# 4
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I don't know if this is detailed enough for you, but Google says that it is

"based on the Quality Score and current advertiser competition for the keyword. For new keywords, the AdWords system estimates the Quality Score and uses recent advertiser competition data to come up with the expected first page bid."

https://support.google.com/adwords/editor/answer/115337?hl=en

That does nothing to explain why it can be (usually is) wildly different from what actually happens, but it does explain why you need to be logged in to see a est first page bid (it needs to know your QS).

I think that's why "top page bid" and the bids from the keyword planner are more accurate because "first page bid" could land you on position 7, which is probably where you do not want to be. "Top page bid" is closer to where you will actually show.